Goldman says copper’s ‘breakout’ above $11 000 won’t last
Goldman Sachs Group injected some caution into the debate over copper’s prospects, saying its surge past $11 000 a ton will prove short-lived as there’s still more than enough metal to meet global demand.
“Most of the recent copper price increase is based on expectation of future market tightness, rather than current fundamentals,” the bank’s analysts, including Aurelia Waltham, wrote in a note. “We do not expect the current breakout above $11 000 to be sustained.”
Copper surged to a record of $11 540 a ton on the London Metal Exchange on Wednesday, fueled by worries of a global supply squeeze as metal is rushed to the US before tariffs are imposed. Trading house Mercuria Energy Group Ltd. stoked that trade last week with a warning of “extreme” supply dislocations.
Mining stocks in Asia-Pacific followed the metal higher on Thursday. Hong Kong’s CMOC rose 6% and Australian-listed Capstone Copper was up as much as 8.2%, among others.
While Goldman raised its forecast for copper in the first half of next year and said the US tariff trade would support prices, the bank suggested “critically low” inventories outside America could be avoided via higher regional premiums and tighter LME spreads. Demand will fall about half a million tons short of supply this year, and there won’t be a copper shortage until 2029, it said.
“While our much smaller 2026 surplus of 160 000 tons moves the market closer to balanced, it means that we do not expect the global copper market to enter a shortage any time soon,” the analysts wrote.
Copper edged higher on Thursday, rising 0.1% to $11 495 a ton on the LME by 11:19 a.m. in Singapore to extend its gain for this year to 31%. Aluminum also topped up its recent rally, gaining 0.3% to head for its highest close since 2022.
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